Agree with your points. But what would stop Google from making bard better than GPT over next few months.

Google has got:

1. best data to train LLM

2. Best AI engineers

3. Money to spend on training hardware for LLM

I wouldn't keep Google out of this GPT trend so easily

first: the innovators dilemma - AI-based queries are much more expensive than traditional search index queries + no comparable level of monetization, so it would cannibalize googles revenue massively and wall street calling the doomsday that mit outright kill the behemoth

second: there seems to be no capable product management or at least not in charge, so these engineers are a massive waste of horsepower and should do something meaningful for the world instead of tuning advertising profits

third: all these beliefs might turn out like recently the fear of the russian military - only existing on paper. maybe most of these rockstar engineers are long gone elsewhere and nobody notices because huge revenue streams are masquerading it?

What would stop google?

1. Weak management with no vision.

2. Fear to cannibalize their search product and ad revenue.

3. They are experiencing brain drain to other companies/startups.

4. Tendency to kill products.