I feel like everyone is trying to draw very linear conclusions about what LLMs will affect, almost as if it's a circle that will be cut out of the market.

But if we really get to the point where programmers can be replaced with LLMs, I expect something closer to swiss cheese: For example, if you're a meat packer, maybe you work someplace that doesn't want to pay for a fancy new machine that can do your job...

But a massive plummeting in the cost of software paired with a massive spike in the rate at which we develop things means machines will cost a lot less. Who knows what kind of material sciences advancements we'll see for example.

At that point the margins may be razor thin, but automation will start to work in places where it couldn't be done profitably before. I think things get a little dystopian from there, since I'd expect the employers still holding onto humans to essentially be holding all the cards. What good is a union when the "scab" is a machine with a one time cost?

-

(but again, this is all assuming LLMs reach a place that is seriously earthshattering)