Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by quickthrowman on Friday March 17, 2023 @03:55PM (#35202019)

How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k.

I don’t think he thought this all the way through.

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by JVillella on Friday March 17, 2023 @03:56PM (#35202040)

I think he is saying if it hyper inflates (they need to agree upon exact criteria) then he gets his 1M back + 1BTC. I don't think he is saying 1BTC > 1M USD.

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by quickthrowman on Friday March 17, 2023 @03:59PM (#35202073)

Obviously he’d get his $1M back, why wouldn’t he? I never said he wouldn’t…

He is selling a BTC put that expires in 90 days and is worth $800-900k for $26k, that’s all I said.

Balaji is betting the hyperinflation makes the BTC worth more than $1M hyper inflated US dollars. If hyperinflation happens, the BTC/USD pair will go up in dollar value.

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by JVillella on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:31PM (#35202505)

That's not what I am saying. I am saying that BTC may be worth 100k, and the USD 500k and he still wins the bet (under the interpretation I mentioned above).

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by JVillella on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:34PM (#35202562)

Nevermind he just updated the thread.

>Terms of the bet: ideally someone can set up a smart contract where BTC is worth >$1M in 90 days, then I win. If it's worth less than $1M in 90 days, then the counterparty gets the $1M in USD.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636827051419389952?s=20

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by sharemywin on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:11PM (#35202257)

wonder if there's a way to pool funds like some kind of ethereum contract. I know ethereum won't talk to bitcoin, but maybe there's a way to do it?

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by JVillella on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:18PM (#35202333)

There's something called WBTC[1]. It's very popular.

[1]: https://wbtc.network

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by Laaas on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:31PM (#35202504)

EDIT: This comment is entirely wrong! Disregard.

Do note this isn't _real_ wrapped bitcoin. It's essentially a stablecoin which price matches a bitcoin; it is not backed by any bitcoins unfortunately.

Real wrapped BTC would require a decentralised bridge which isn't exactly trivial.

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by JVillella on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:32PM (#35202519)

Wrong :) Look at the website.

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by Laaas on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:42PM (#35202641)

FWIW it seems to be centralised, making use of a custodian, albeit it is backed by BTC as you say.

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Re:Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation withi... by JVillella on Friday March 17, 2023 @04:46PM (#35202689)

Yes, that's right. It's like USDC in that sense.

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