What’s the delta though? Nobody seems to be able to quantify how much this is, but still are able to muster outrage over some unknown amount of harm done to them as bank users.

> What’s the delta though

For the Treasuries, this is known but not public. For the MBS, a theoretical value is known but not public. (The federal government has to sell these securities. It doesn't make sense to announce the holdings so they can be front run.)

This is a lie. It says on their SEC filings.

They state clear as day that they had 91 billion of securities, currently worth 76 billion in their hold to maturity portfolio.

In their avalable for sale (AFS) portfolio, they had 28 billion, currently worth 26.

They break it all down by asset type, MBS, treasuries, foreign debt, ect. They break it down by the duration, eg <1yr, 5-10, 10+ yrs

There is no mystery. I dont know why people keep saying this.

Check out page 124 onward if you are curious: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000719739/f36fc4d...

> break it all down by asset type, MBS, treasuries, foreign debt, ect. They break it down by the duration, eg <1yr, 5-10, 10+ yrs

Yes, categorically. No, not specifically. 5 and 10 years produce different answers, particularly with current convexity. (It is fine if you're trying to get broad-grained answers.)

Potential buyers over the weekend got a list of CUSIPs. The public does not get that until ex post facto.

The public does know the current value of all securities, and of several different buckets. Yes, these market values will change at different rates for individual assets, and we dont have a list of every stock, bond, and loan.

We still have a very good understanding of the "delta" and the magnitude of the loss, if not with crystal clarity.

Nearly all of the unrealized loss was in securities more than >10 years. They had 15.1 billion in unrealized HTM losses. 14.7 billion of this had a maturity >30

9 billion is agency MBS

2 billion in agency collateralized mortgage obligations

2.3 billion in commercial mortgage backed securities, and

1.2 in municipal bonds and notes.

They actually have relatively few treasuries, and none in their HTM portfolio. Unrealized losses on treasuries are ~1 billion, And mostly treasuries from treasuries less than 12 months ( contrary to what most people report).

I really recommend actually looking at their filing. It is extremely detailed.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000719739/f36fc4d...

We can estimate the delta as of filing dates. We don’t know what the delta is.

That doesn’t matter, because they’re federally backed. But it’s a crucial difference to appreciate less than one week after a run.

Like I said above, you won't have a crystal clear number but you have some brackets on the fair market value. The assets under management belong to the account holders so you can zero them out. You can zero out the shareholder value which is zero. This mainly leaves there other cash assets and physical assets.

I'm not willing to do it to win a hn debate, but there's enough public information to estimate the size of their hole within a billion or two.

Claims that they were evasive or hiding things in their financial reportings are off base. Claims that it would be impossible to get an idea of their Financial losses are also off base.

> they were evasive or hiding things in their financial reportings are off base

Nobody (in this thread) claimed this? And I disagree with the “within a billion or two,” though do think within a few tens of billions is accurate. The problem isn’t the specificity of the filing per se but the delay; that isn’t the balance sheet anymore.

>And I disagree with the “within a billion or two,” though do think within a few tens of billions is accurate.

It is clear from the statement that we are almost entirely talking about 30 year MBS purchased in 2021.

3% 30yr MBS were about $105 throughout 2021. These were about $89.2 at the end of 2022 (10-k filing), and about $89.4 today.

You might say, "but they may have put it 30yr MBS!". The thing is, you can validate this by the ammount they lost from 2021 to 2022. It also doesnt make much of a difference if they bought slightly different rate MBS at 2.5% or 3.5%, as they track pretty closely. Lastly, MBS value havent changed much since the time of the 10-k filing.

To get "a few tens of billions" difference, they would have had to tripple their losses on MBS in a time when MBS value has been stable.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs/umbs/30/30

You know what else is below inflation? The rates SVB has to pay its depositors. As long as the rate is > 0, which is the rate SVB will pay its depositors, there’s no reason the Feds should take any hits.

As long as the rates on the bond are > than the rates SVB is paying its depositors it will be fine.