“I'd put ~20% chance that we are in the beginning stages of a banking crisis.”

Re:“I'd put ~20% chance that we are in the beginning stages ... by paulpauper on Monday March 13, 2023 @08:14PM (#35145304)

I seem to have a gift for understatement so to make this explicit: I'd put ~20% chance that we are in the beginning stages of a banking crisis. Banking crises are not the end of the world, but they are substantially worse than the failures of an individual bank

I'd put it at 5-95%. In other words, who knows. The big one is something like Schwab. It was down at one point 20% today.

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Re:“I'd put ~20% chance that we are in the beginning stages ... by simonblack on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @12:39AM (#35147518)

Long past the beginning stages. Closer to the end than the beginning.

The world and his dog have been expecting this for at least twenty years, if not thirty.

The US was "lucky" (/s) to have the World's Reserve Currency in the late 1980s.

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