> is exactly the sort of arrogant exceptionalism that got a lot of people into this jam

Well, I don't think you start a business if you're being entirely rational, either. You basically need an outsized belief in your own capabilities and need to have the erroneous belief that you entirely control your own destiny.

Black swan events that might entirely wipe you out and that are completely out of your control cause cognitive dissonance.

I do think FDIC should choose to incur some amount of risk of being surprised by additional liabilities by making a quick dividend payment. The benefits of keeping things moving and adding some clarity soon outweigh a small risk of partially bailing out losses.