The smart money (the people buying at 60c) presumably expects them to receive quite a bit more. Those selling at 60c are generally doing so because they are desperate for the cashflow. Likely the number will go up as more cautious/less nimble entities are able to evaluate the trade and decide they can buy the claims at a higher price.

I'd bet on 80%+ probability of uninsured depositors getting back 100c on the dollar, 99% they get back at least 60c on the dollar.

During IndyMac, widely considered the worst bank failure in the fdic regime, uninsured depositors eventually got back over 85% of their deposits.

They had 50% in hand the week after the receivership.