Re:Emergency credit line for SVB customers
by maximilianroos on Saturday March 11, 2023 @12:46AM
(#35105813)
A HN comment for the ages.
Reply to two basically correct statements, make a claim that's completely false, and then — and here's the genius — say a bunch of true statements that come around to support the view you're disagreeing with!
Re:Emergency credit line for SVB customers
by cesarb on Saturday March 11, 2023 @08:33AM
(#35108128)
> Treasuries cannot lose value just like cash. They are as good as cash in almost every context. You can always sit on them until they mature and you'll get the full amount plus interest. You cannot lose money this way.
Be careful with absolute statements like that. While it hasn't happened so far with USA treasuries, its equivalents in many countries have lost value in the past.
Re:Emergency credit line for SVB customers
by JumpCrisscross on Sunday March 12, 2023 @08:03AM
(#35119120)
> Treasuries cannot lose value just like cash. They are as good as cash in almost every context
No free lunch. Treasuries yield more than bills because they’re less liquid.
> Long term treasuries have declined 40% in value since they peaked in 2020.
This is inaccurate. What you linked to (TLT) aren't bonds, these are bond funds. The way a bond ETF works is that they have a stack of bonds that track the benchmark interest rate. They periodically sell off their old bonds and buy new ones, they don't just sit on them and wait for them to mature. That means TLT's NAV goes down when interest rates go up because they're selling lower interest rate bonds, and buying higher interest rate bonds.
Treasuries cannot lose value just like cash. They are as good as cash in almost every context. You can always sit on them until they mature and you'll get the full amount plus interest. You cannot lose money this way.
Where you can lose money though is if you have to liquidate them sooner. Why would someone buy a 3% 30y treasury for $X from you when they can get a 4% 30y treasury from the source for the same price? You have to sweeten the deal by paying out the difference in rates. This is where you can lose money.
SVBs issue was a mismatch in durations. They had too many demands for money out now, and too little available now. They have plenty of money coming in the future, but that's too late.