It’s still a factor in a potential offender’s mental calculation.

If the penalty is very high you will still think very hard about it even if you are good at evading detection.

Not really. It is the risk of getting caught that is a deterrent. If jaywalking was a capital offense but only one person in 300,000,000 a year got arrested and convicted for it, it wouldn't put a huge dent in jaywalking. Whereas a fine of say $75 and a 95% catch rate will pull jaywalking down to almost zero pretty quickly.