The parent didn't say everyone would get their money back. It said the friend who took a seed-stage investment will likely get most of their money back. I don't know the odds of that (most uncertain about the amount of money involved) but it's definitely much higher than "everyone gets all of their money back".
first HN said there was no problem
then HN said everyone will get their money back
what next?
HN is full of dreamers, the kind who wander into traffic