Citation needed.

How about bank failures? As in multiple banks have now failed.

The bank failures (SI, SBNY, SIVB) were tied to stuff that grew 300% in 2 years (speculative VC crap, crypto)

It's bad, but likely still a contained collapse (hopefully!)

It doesn’t work like that, these banks didn’t fail because of exposure to particular industries. They failed to manage their IR risk just the same as every other American bank. Now they will all be in for some serious pain. In 2021 it would have been considered fringe economic theory for rates to hit 5%. Most economists would have told you it was more likely to be at -1% now.

then go find one.

That's your job, buddy.

The doomsayers have shifted from "we've been in a recession for six months, they just changed the definition of a recession" to "an economy that is beginning to falter."

I'll take that as a sign that the economy remains robust.

Based on what?

Falter or maybe 're-balance' --> Look at all the thousands of layoffs in tech, the price of real-estate at all sectors, interest rates, savings-account rates of the population, homeless, unemployed, under-employed etc.

There are a fuck-ton of factors that all have not-so-rosey outlooks.

Its amazing we dont have an actual game "sim America" and you get to fiddle with all the various economic levers in our tax code and see the output based on real data coming from various sources in the economic space (like farm, military, foreign subsidies, etc)

One that takes in the budget proposal from .gov and lets you fiddle with the model and such and crowdsource the best model outcomes through millions of game players - rewarded kind of like the lottery - everyone pays $1 a month to come up with the best model - its run through many simulations and the best model wins a bunch of cash. and then, wait for it, chatGPT writes an actual budget bill to be voted on.