It may not be precisely a lottery, but if most of the successful people are “I’ve failed a lot more thab I’ve won”, then, the ability to afford to fail a lot more than you win.
Especially with the narratives where the failures involve periods of homelessness, etc., possibly mitigate by couch-surfing or other network support—having a network that mitigates in that way is fortune. Surviving homelessness without it in a way that lets you to buy another totally-not-a-lottery-ticket at business? Even more a matter of fortune.
Most people will never even have the opportunity to afford one lottery ticket.
The lottery idea works in the sense that I was born in the U.S. rather than a developing country AND my parents, who were far from rich or even stable at times still were able to afford a family computer (thank you Atari 520ST) which was very fortunate since my formal education ended the 3rd time I was expelled from high school.
Yes, from the life perspective, as opposed to a worst-case (even in the U.S) I most certainly am privileged and lucky, and did certainly win a lottery of sorts. You’re absolutely correct.
Having said that, most of us that work in tech have won that same or a similar lottery.
Life, location, family, stability, yes those things are a bit of a lottery.
But not so for startups. Your odds of winning the lottery never increase. Your odds of winning in business do, as long as you learn from your failures.
As a ratio I’ve failed a lot more than I’ve won but it is not a lottery.
It’s more like a golf game, it’s hard to do well but you do learn and improve with each attempt.