Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and solving problems with them

Re:Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and sol... by chasebank on Thursday February 23, 2023 @07:45PM (#34919089)

Kelly criterion is applicable to betting / trading, where you're winning / losing. If you never 'lose', ie., stay in the market, martingale seems really promising. For instance, SPY will never go to 0. The FED / US govt will never let it. In fact, it can't - it would destroy the US economy. So when you're playing a game where you know the graph will always to up and to the right, eventually, martingale seems appropriate.

FWIW, I trade futures on the side and have always been interested in DCA or martingale long strategies.

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Re:Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and sol... by mempko on Thursday February 23, 2023 @08:42PM (#34919590)

And yet in the history of the world, countries and economies get destroyed all the time.

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Re:Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and sol... by chasebank on Friday February 24, 2023 @01:49PM (#34928271)

True. But if the US equities market fails, there will be more to worry about than your stock portfolio.

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