News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and sol... by throwaway81523 on Thursday February 23, 2023 @04:43PM (#34916950)
It looks like a good article for those who are already studying theoretical probability. For laypeople, not so much.

I haven't yet figured out what the author is doing with the sigma algebra machinery. I had thought that the event set of a probability space was intuitively the power set of the sample set, and that the machinery of sigma algebras was only added to avoid pathologies like non-measurable sets (think Banach-Tarski paradox). Maybe there is more to it?

I would like to understand this better and I do plan to read the article, but I had found the Wikipedia article on martingales to be reasonably understandable a while back. The good thing about this article is it shows applications.

Re:Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and sol... by ajkjk on Thursday February 23, 2023 @06:42PM (#34918478)
I'm not a layperson (not really, at least) and I strongly feel like the sigma algebra framework is basically a waste of time. Mathematicians love abstracting and formalizing things but it's not useful, paradoxically, if you're trying to actually just do math.
Re:Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and sol... by jhanschoo on Thursday February 23, 2023 @07:02PM (#34918681)
Sigma algebras are primarily useful for modeling less well-behaved probability spaces when you aren't dealing with (a product space of) probability spaces of that can be described by a pdf or pmf
Re:Probability 101, the intuition behind martingales and sol... by slopbop on Friday February 24, 2023 @06:13AM (#34923312)
Sigma algebras are useful even in a finite setting where we don't have to worry about pathologies. Think of them as modelling the lack of complete information in a probabilistic setting. If I know exactly which sample point represents my state, then I know the exact value of any random variable. If instead I only know that my state belongs to a given member of my sigma algebra, then I have some information, but not enough to necessarily pinpoint the value of a random variable.

In fact, the familiar tools of measure theory can take this intuition further. If a random variable is measurable with respect to a sigma algebra, then knowing which element of that sigma algebra my state is in actually is sufficient to pinpoint the value of a random variable.

Maybe to make this more concrete:

Let's say I'm going to do two coinflips. My probability space is {HH, HT, TH, TT}. You can check for yourself that the sigma algebra generated by {{HH, HT}}, {TT, TH}} is not the trivial one- this is the sigma algebra that represents "Knowing the value of the first flip, but not the second".

If we let X_first and X_second be 1 or 0 if the first or second flip is H or T respectively, then X_first is measurable with respect to this sigma algebra, but X_second is not.

With Martingales and other stochastic processes, we don't generally have just one sigma algebra, but a sequence of sigma algebras called a "filtration", where each sigma algebra is finer than the last (ie, contains more sets, therefore gives you more measurable random variables). This filtration sort of defines the stochastic process- it's encoding the slow drip of extra information as the stochastic process evolves over time.