Re:Ask HN: What Happened to Elm?
by wpietri on Friday February 10, 2023 @08:34PM
(#34748605)
They can only learn to program the first time one time. After that, everything is relative to their first language. So learning cost becomes a function of the distance between old languages and the new one.
Moreover, the gain in going from zero programming languages to one is huge. You can make things! Going from one to two is small in comparison. You can make things, but hopefully somewhat better.
For any technology, some people will like the novelty and will be risk tolerant, so they'll pick it up for fun. Others will be seeking some strong benefit; if the technology provides that they'll adopt it too. If that happens, another chunk of people will pick it up as the coming thing. But circa half of people adopt the new thing only when it becomes dominant or when they're forced to by circumstance.
Max Planck said, “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” And that's often shortened as "science proceeds one funeral at a time." Software's not quite that bad, but it's certainly heading in that direction.
Moreover, the gain in going from zero programming languages to one is huge. You can make things! Going from one to two is small in comparison. You can make things, but hopefully somewhat better.
So the ROI on learning a very different language isn't great for most. And that's when the technology adoption curve comes in handy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle
For any technology, some people will like the novelty and will be risk tolerant, so they'll pick it up for fun. Others will be seeking some strong benefit; if the technology provides that they'll adopt it too. If that happens, another chunk of people will pick it up as the coming thing. But circa half of people adopt the new thing only when it becomes dominant or when they're forced to by circumstance.
Max Planck said, “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” And that's often shortened as "science proceeds one funeral at a time." Software's not quite that bad, but it's certainly heading in that direction.