Could anything other than China invading Taiwan precipitate war between the US and China? I doubt it (though sure, 'accidents' could happen given the current level of bellicosity). However, if China does invade Taiwan the whole economic argument seems to go off the table because Taiwan's fabs crank out the majority of the world's most advanced chips - ie. that act of invading Taiwan would in itself do a lot of damage to the world economy were it to happen within the next couple of years (before other fabs currently under construction come on line in 2 or 3 years).