Re:Ask HN: Are you tired of reading ChatGPT headlines?
by ben_w on Saturday February 04, 2023 @05:14PM
(#34658970)
I certainly hope so self-driving cars are the accurate reference class for this, for several reasons.
Among them: I don't think I've ever demonstrated more creativity than chatGPT, only equalled it; and while it sure does make mistakes, when I look back at my old code (or even blog posts) I realise I sure did a lot of that too. I'm pretty surprised it's even as capable as it is, given my understanding of how it works and what it's "goals" are (the task "predicting tokens" doesn't seem like it should be able to do this much).
My fear is that the reference class for this is Go, where someone writing an AI for the game thought it was a decade away from beating humans less than two year before AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol: https://www.wired.com/2014/05/the-world-of-computer-go/
Among them: I don't think I've ever demonstrated more creativity than chatGPT, only equalled it; and while it sure does make mistakes, when I look back at my old code (or even blog posts) I realise I sure did a lot of that too. I'm pretty surprised it's even as capable as it is, given my understanding of how it works and what it's "goals" are (the task "predicting tokens" doesn't seem like it should be able to do this much).
My fear is that the reference class for this is Go, where someone writing an AI for the game thought it was a decade away from beating humans less than two year before AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol: https://www.wired.com/2014/05/the-world-of-computer-go/