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Re:ChatGPT Passes Google Coding Interview for Level 3 Engine... by ThrowawayR2 on Saturday February 04, 2023 @04:42PM (#34658669)
LLMs are statistical models. All it does is guess word sequences in response to prompts, like a 'roided out version of autocomplete. (This is why it hallucinates imaginary facts.) It has no ability to conceptualize or reason nor is there any credible proposal for a path forward to graft reasoning onto it.

The training data can be tweaked and more compute hours can be thrown at LLMs until it no longer makes financial sense to do so and then, as the OP said, it will hit a hard stop.

Re:ChatGPT Passes Google Coding Interview for Level 3 Engine... by hackerlight on Saturday February 04, 2023 @11:17PM (#34661793)
This relies on two assumptions, that compute won't get cheaper and there won't be large algorithmic improvements, both of which keep getting proven wrong.
Re:ChatGPT Passes Google Coding Interview for Level 3 Engine... by ThrowawayR2 on Saturday February 04, 2023 @11:35PM (#34661909)
There have been plenty of articles discussed on HN about why it's increasingly difficult and costly to make processors at smaller nodes, so yes, compute will get cheaper much, much more slowly than in the past.

As for large algorithmic improvements, I'll be excited by them when they've been published and demonstrated. Assuming they're just inevitably going to happen is just wishful thinking.