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Re:Effective Altruism Has a Toxic Culture of Sexual Harassme... by skissane on Saturday February 04, 2023 @09:30AM (#34654738)
Declaring Mars a “nature reserve” would be completely unenforceable. Suppose you convince US Congress to pass a law banning Americans from sending humans to Mars, due to the risk of contamination to native Martian microbes. What happens when China says “now is our chance to show the world we’ve eclipsed the US by sending humans to Mars when they won’t“? Even though such a Chinese mission isn’t feasible today (an American one arguably isn’t either), who can say what its feasibility will be in another 20 or 50 years? And if not China, then sooner or later somebody else. Sustained global consensus on this issue is unlikely, which makes Mars as a “nature reserve” meaningless in the long-term. On Earth, the vast majority of nature reserves only exist because some government has military control of the territory and hence can enforce that status.
Re:Effective Altruism Has a Toxic Culture of Sexual Harassme... by LarryMullins on Saturday February 04, 2023 @02:24PM (#34657266)
> Declaring Mars a “nature reserve” would be completely unenforceable.

Generally worked pretty well for Antarctica. A few research bases are permitted but colonization is internationally banned and not happening.

BTW, colonizing Antarctica would be a lot easier than colonizing Mars. Far fewer technical challenges to overcome, and much more practical experience overcoming those challenges.

Re:Effective Altruism Has a Toxic Culture of Sexual Harassme... by skissane on Saturday February 04, 2023 @05:04PM (#34658875)
Many people who call for Mars to be declared a "nature reserve" aren't just calling for a ban on Mars colonisation, they are calling on a ban on crewed exploration – either of the planet as a whole, or at least of sites they view as "environmentally sensitive" (which basically turns out to be the most interesting exploration targets, and many of the sites which would most easily host crews). They are worried about microbial contamination, which is a rather different environmental concern from Antarctica, and requires much stricter limits on human activity.

When someone like Elon Musk talks about "colonising" Mars, all he's realistically talking about – at first – is a crewed research station, so not that different from what we have in Antarctica. And many people who want Mars to be a "nature reserve" are opposed to even that. Yes, Musk hopes that such a research station will eventually grow into a buzzing metropolis, but I think if that ever happens it is a long way off. Musk might live to see crewed research stations established, I very much doubt he'll live to see genuine colonisation, much as he enjoys publicly fantasising about that topic.

Even the ban on colonising Antarctica only really works because it is banning something no government wants to do anyway. Crewed exploration of Mars would be attractive in principle to governments because of the benefits for national prestige, getting in the history-books, outshining the competition – the same basic reasons why the US went to the Moon. Of course, that benefit has to be weighed against the immense cost – but costs aren't constant, with further technological and economic developments it is going to become more affordable.

All the groundbreaking exploration opportunities with Antarctica have already been used up, so governments don't have the same motivations there. And I think the first human visit to another planet, is going to be much more noteworthy and prestigious and memorable, than whoever was first to explore some big freezing cold island on Earth. A thousand years from now, most people will still probably remember who Neil Armstrong was; I doubt many other people from the 20th century would still be household names (I suppose Einstein and Hitler would be the other likely candidates)–its only been a century or two, but the average person has no clue whom the first explorers of Antarctica were.