No one is going on a spending spree right now. But, if someone asked me after consolidation who would be the last ones standing, it would be Netflix and Disney.

I agree with you 100% on that. I just disagree that Disney is well positioned to take part in consolidation. They might be able to pull off some content licensing like Netflix used to do. But right now, the only thing holding Disney afloat is the parks. And they've certainly upset some fans to make that statement true.

Well, and Amazon--if only because Amazon can probably ratchet down content spend while Amazon Prime stays attractive for other reasons.

Disney also will probably make more money on its four biggest movie releases this year than Netflix makes in all.

Avatar 2- a movie that came from its Fox acquisition has already made over $2 Billion

Tbf avatar 2 was also extremely expensive, its breakeven point was reported to be in the 2 billion ball park (https://time.com/6241639/avatar-2-costs-box-office/)

Industry experts (including insiders at Disney) note that breakeven was approximately 1.5 billion (the 2 billion came from Cameron), accounting for marketing expenses, the theaters' share of ticket sales, and the fact that the bloated number includes the entire filming costs for Avatar 3 and a quarter of Avatar 4.

So Avatar 2 has earned Disney a profit of at least $250m and it still has several more weeks without any competition. And Avatar 3 will have a far lower break-even point.

Even so, it’s going to break even and make a slight profit before it ever hits streaming.

You can’t say the same about Netflix. Netflix is completely dependent on streaming revenue.

Netflix doesn't get anywhere near the theatrical release of Disney movies, but it does get some: https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/coming-soon/netflix-movies-...

It’s not enough to break even before it hits streaming. It doesn’t really move the needle.

Right now, sure. Just like Disney+ doesn't break even for Disney. It does signal a horizontal expansion for Netflix though.

Part of that cash flow doesn't go to Disney at all, it stays with the theaters.

I'm curious whether that total box office number includes taxes on the tickets as well.

Disney gets 70% of all revenue from theatrical releases during the first few weeks

https://www.quora.com/How-are-ticket-revenues-shared-with-th...