Re:Speak softly, and carry a big chip
by jcranmer on Sunday January 22, 2023 @01:46AM
(#34475035)
The cause of WWI, if you can boil it down to a simple statement, is that red lines, vaguely drawn, were crossed by both sides, resulting in escalating tit-for-tats, with no one on any side acting to deescalate the situation.
The risk of this happening in a US-China conflict is moderately high. Chinese red lines are vaguely drawn. US red lines are more firmly drawn, but the US government system has multiple loci of power, and China seems to have a poor read on US policy as a result. De-escalation on both sides looks rather difficult to pull off, especially because China has a tendency to do things like through hissy fits whenever it feels slighted and shut down existing mechanisms to help de-escalate.
Another way a war can break it is something like WW2 or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where you declare a war because you think you have a window of opportunity for victory. And if you guess wrong, well, you can ask Nazi Germany how well that works out for them.
The risk of this happening in a US-China conflict is moderately high. Chinese red lines are vaguely drawn. US red lines are more firmly drawn, but the US government system has multiple loci of power, and China seems to have a poor read on US policy as a result. De-escalation on both sides looks rather difficult to pull off, especially because China has a tendency to do things like through hissy fits whenever it feels slighted and shut down existing mechanisms to help de-escalate.
Another way a war can break it is something like WW2 or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where you declare a war because you think you have a window of opportunity for victory. And if you guess wrong, well, you can ask Nazi Germany how well that works out for them.