I mostly agree with your points but want to point out there's always potential for things to change. The PRC is still investing heavily into developing native chipmaking capability in all stages of the production chain despite a string of high profile failures in the last 5 years. For military purposes the chips don't have to be made with state of the art technology. They just need to be good enough to work and achieve their intended purpose, sometimes rather crudely. Should a breakthrough happen, Taiwan's "silicon shield" could weaken quite a bit.

I still lean towards a "no hot war" scenario because the PRC's demographic structure is deteriorating just like Russia's, and Putin has already demonstrated a lesson with the war in Ukraine.