On the other hand, in 2009 I said "ten years" about consumer purchasable self driving cars good enough to not bother with a steering wheel, and that didn't happen. Seemed plausible to me even during the intervening years, given the videos Tesla was putting out. But, didn't happen.
But however long it takes, if companies like OpenAI et al can no longer benefit from humans rating the results (which is what I was replying to), then their AIs are going to be ready to replace us too.
"""After the match, I ask Coulom when a machine will win without a handicap. "I think maybe ten years," he says. "But I do not like to make predictions."""" - https://www.wired.com/2014/05/the-world-of-computer-go/
On the other hand, in 2009 I said "ten years" about consumer purchasable self driving cars good enough to not bother with a steering wheel, and that didn't happen. Seemed plausible to me even during the intervening years, given the videos Tesla was putting out. But, didn't happen.
But however long it takes, if companies like OpenAI et al can no longer benefit from humans rating the results (which is what I was replying to), then their AIs are going to be ready to replace us too.