To say that somebody’s success at tasks that are highly correlated with a separate task is irrelevant is simply wrong.

And people who tend to succeed at most things they do, tend to do so for a reason. It’s effectively statistically impossible for it to be sheer coincidence/luck.

Or should I just pick random “logical fallacy” links to put in my replies instead?

If a baseball teams wins their first four games and you see them in the seventh inning behind by 30 points in game 5, is the relevant correlation how the team did in games 1 to 4 or is the relevant correlation how a team who is that far behind a particular game tends to do?

I simply noted you appear incapable of perceiving Elon as making bad decisions, which is kind of funny, since he seemed to think agreeing to buy Twitter was a bad decision, and was in the process of losing a court case about it before he saw the writing on the wall and closed the agreement.

If he actually is making bad decisions, I think the halo effect is at play.