"if the birth rate keeps increasing" is another of your assumptions that most demographers find unrealistic. Rising incomes have solved this problem (perhaps too well) in every single advanced economy on Earth.

Is your assumption that certain developing societies aren't capable of this? Or won't do this? If that's the case, why? Why are we extrapolating current birth rates in places like West Africa 100 years into the future? That didn't happen anywhere else.

> Is your assumption that certain developing societies aren't capable of this? Or won't do this? If that's the case, why?

What are you talking about? Look around. I don't see this utopia of yours anywhere now or before, so why do you expect it will just materialize in the future?

There are some that see the glass half full, but I've never before encountered someone that sees half a glass and thinks there's an Olympic swimming pool.

Perhaps you've heard of this country called China. A country that was as poor as the places in West Africa that you've written off. In 4 decades, they pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty. As a result, they are now facing a demographic crash that will shrink their population nearly in half:

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/12/05/key-facts-a...

This isn't exactly going to be a nice situation for them, or for us. You misunderstand my position as being wildly optimistic. You simply don't understand contemporary human societies, so your assumptions about their trajectories miss the mark completely.

> Perhaps you've heard of this country called China. A country that was as poor as the places in West Africa that you've written off. In 4 decades, they pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty.

China's poverty rate has decreased massively in the last 40 years, and at about a rate of 3.2% between 2017-2019. In 2019, China's poverty rate was 15.8%. There are 1.412B people in China, which means that in 2019 over 223M people in China lived below the poverty line. There are 209,128,094 adults in the US over 18yo, which means about 14M more people in China live in poverty than there are adults in the US.

     A new report from one of China's top universities found that wealth and income inequality in the country is getting steadily worse. According to the report, one-third of the country's wealth is owned by the top 1 percent of households, while the bottom 25 percent account for only 1 percent of wealth.[1] 

     The Chinese political system is authoritarian. There are no freely elected national leaders, political opposition is suppressed, all religious activity is controlled by the CCP, dissent is not permitted and civil rights are curtailed. Elections in China occur under a single-party authoritarian political system.[2] 

     General Secretary Xi reaffirms China's close ties with Russia, saying “China is willing to work with Russia to continue supporting each other on their respective core interests concerning sovereignty and security.”[3]

     The head of Taiwan's National Security Bureau recently told lawmakers that even if China invaded, they wouldn't be able to continue TSMC's operation. So, there's no need for crazy contingencies like blowing up TSMC factories.[4]

If China is your Gold Standard other societies should aspire to, I would only direct you to look at the facts and encourage you to abandon your rose colored glasses. China supports Russia which is by many accounts a Mafia State. China has been on the verge of invading Taiwan for decades, which will certainly be devastating to computer technology, but could very well start World War III and cripple all functioning societies.

> You misunderstand my position as being wildly optimistic. You simply don't understand contemporary human societies, so your assumptions about their trajectories miss the mark completely.

False. Your position is absurdly optimistic on its face. What I understand or don't understand and whatever assumptions you imagine I have made is entirely irrelevant to the argument I have presented. What you have done is ignored my argument and employed fallacious argument, including ad hominem and straw man arguments, as well as hand-waving and non-response.

[1] https://thediplomat.com/2016/01/report-chinas-1-percent-owns...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_China

[3] https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-position-russias-invasi...

[4] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/340215-taiwan-tsmc-wou...

> Few are getting richer, nearly everyone is getting poorer. Your solution is elusive.

The material science necessary for pitchforks and guillotines has been well understood for centuries. Extreme inequality had the same outcome across human cultures and generations.

It would be far more equitable and cleaner to vote the conservative minority holding the country hostage into oblivion. All we need to do is convince everyone to ignore all irrelevant distractions like gun rights and abortion, and vote in their personal economic interests. If everyone would only and always do that, no Republican would ever hold office again, economic advancement would occur, and the economy would boom.