Re:I analyzed shuffling in a million games of MtG Arena
by pclmulqdq on Sunday January 15, 2023 @08:50AM
(#34389353)
If you have a perfect shuffle, something like 10-15% of MTG hands are basically unplayable, and another 10-20% have no realistic chance of winning (eg too slow, not resilient, etc.). The exact fractions depend on the deck and your opponent.
The game mitigates this with a mulligan rule, where you can get another hand with one less card if you want. That way, you can get rid of a bad hand, but it costs a card each time. Commonly, magic players overvalue the card, and don't mulligan hands that they should, but it is also possible (and common) to just lose games to luck even if you do everything right - top MTG pros only have ~65-70% win rates against random people.
MTG arena apparently also does an internal free mulligan for you (to make the game more fun) - it draws 2 hands initially and gives you the one with the better mix of cards.
The game mitigates this with a mulligan rule, where you can get another hand with one less card if you want. That way, you can get rid of a bad hand, but it costs a card each time. Commonly, magic players overvalue the card, and don't mulligan hands that they should, but it is also possible (and common) to just lose games to luck even if you do everything right - top MTG pros only have ~65-70% win rates against random people.
MTG arena apparently also does an internal free mulligan for you (to make the game more fun) - it draws 2 hands initially and gives you the one with the better mix of cards.