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Re:I analyzed shuffling in a million games of MtG Arena by toxik on Sunday January 15, 2023 @06:59AM (#34388765)
I don’t quite understand, why can’t you just determine the probability of a game’s draws and do a regular null hypothesis test?
Re:I analyzed shuffling in a million games of MtG Arena by dmurray on Sunday January 15, 2023 @07:09AM (#34388811)
You need a suitable non-null hypothesis to start with, too.

Suppose we're talking about a regular deck of cards, and someone says "the shuffler gives the first player too many hearts". That requires a different test to debunk/support it than the hypothesis "the shuffler gives the third player too many aces".

In other words, any claim that the shuffle is not random needs to include a testable assertion about the direction of bias it has, and allows you to make predictions about the next card with better than random accuracy.

Re:I analyzed shuffling in a million games of MtG Arena by toxik on Sunday January 15, 2023 @07:19AM (#34388858)
The null hypothesis is that the cards are drawn from a uniform distribution, and if we only consider land/nonland as categories, it should be pretty straightforward to determine the probability of a sequence of draws under this distribution. Essentially it comes out to a weighted coin toss each time.
Re:I analyzed shuffling in a million games of MtG Arena by ProjectArcturis on Sunday January 15, 2023 @09:27AM (#34389622)
No, you can do a Chi-squared to test whether the distribution is significantly different from theory in any way.