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Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by Animats on Friday January 13, 2023 @01:24PM (#34371783)
This author is mostly writing an update of 1950s science fiction about a robot takeover.

Things to worry about in the near term:

- Really effective targeted advertising. Most computers already have a camera watching you. That's now coming to TV sets. Amazon and Google are always listening. So far, all this info is only used to select ads. Soon, it should be possible to generate customized marketing contgent for each consumer, and use immediate feedback on how the customer reacts to adjust the sales pitch. Alexa is already part of the way there.

- Machines should think, people should work. That's what working in an Amazon warehouse is like today. The machines tell the humans what to do. They have to; only the computers have an overview of the process. (Yeah, Marshall Brain's "Manna", which everyone here has probably read.)

- Big Brother is watching you. It is possible now to watch most of the people most of the time. Track who's out of view and for how long, to know what's being missed. China leads in this, but the UK is not far behind. The US isn't centralized enough to integrate all the available data yet. We're coming up on Oppression 2.0. Latest advance - Iran is using surveillance cameras and face recognition to catch women not wearing hijabs.

- Machines beating humans at business. In some areas, AI systems may generate better returns than humans. That already happens in parts of finance. After all, it's an optimization problem. The free market may force companies to use AI more in management.

- Reduced need for education. Right now, about half of college graduates do jobs that don't require a college education. For many people, going to college is not cost-effective. That will increase.

This is all next 5 to 10 years stuff.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by dustbitying on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:03PM (#34372326)
> Reduced need for education. Right now, about half of college graduates do jobs that don't require a college education. For many people, going to college is not cost-effective. That will increase.

you seem to implicitly assume that a college education is an unnecessary expense for most and that therefore, it shouldn't be really given away so readily. this suggests to me that you assume that the real purpose of college is job preparation. your reasoning makes sense from the perspective of a higher level institution (or corporation, or possibly a government) seeking to be as efficient as possible regardless of the impact on typical human individual's well-being.

college is not a 'factory' (or any sort of industry) that 'manufactures' workers for companies.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by hn_throwaway_99 on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:10PM (#34372425)
These days, if you want to just "learn for learning's sake", or for self improvement, there are tons of free and cheap ways to get a good education.

The only reason people are willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for college is that it is a credentialed degree that people think will open up career doors. We shouldn't beat around the bush on this fact.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by auctoritas on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:29PM (#34372675)
Not only that, truly advancing into the depths of a subject, becoming a scholar and serious intellectual in the process, is a path reserved for but a few. The moment you force the masses into higher education as the default path that earlier justification of University as the forge of scholars becomes anachronistic and new justifications must be created.
Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by korroziya on Friday January 13, 2023 @03:14PM (#34373259)
>These days, if you want to just "learn for learning's sake", or for self improvement, there are tons of free and cheap ways to get a good education

I agree, but you won't have a sheet of paper proving it. It's like that infamous scene from Good Will Hunting. Question is whether you want an easy way to PROVE you're educated. Which is what a license, certificate or diploma grants you.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by TheCraiggers on Friday January 13, 2023 @03:44PM (#34373643)
The person you replied to already covers that in the following sentences.

Why else would you need to prove your education except for work?

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by haswell on Friday January 13, 2023 @04:07PM (#34373889)
In a hypothetical post-work era where people no longer build their reputation via career, it’s not hard to imagine group dynamics emerging such that education level is no longer a means to an end, but an end unto itself.

Essentially a new way to establish hierarchies.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by TheCraiggers on Friday January 13, 2023 @10:51PM (#34377234)
Sure... if we ever get there, I could potentially see that.

But we're nowhere close to that. Also, if it's being used to establish hierarchies, I could still see that proof being important.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by haswell on Sunday January 15, 2023 @01:10PM (#34391495)
Maybe I misread your comment. All of this thread is speculative, including the speculation that degrees will become less and less relevant.

Getting “there” doesn’t happen overnight, but the point is that we are already heading there, and to the question “why get a degree if not for work”, I presented a potential future option.

> I could still see that proof being important.

This is key to the point I was trying to make. Essentially that the purpose of education may change over time, but the value of gaining an education will still be there in one form or another.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by hooande on Friday January 13, 2023 @05:31PM (#34374821)
um. if you're just learning for learning's sake... why do you need to prove that to anyone?
Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by haswell on Sunday January 15, 2023 @01:17PM (#34391572)
For the same reason people care about official records when they participate in/compete in many activities, e.g. marathon runners care about their official run times, body builders the weight they are capable of lifting, chess players their ratings, video gamers their win/loss ratio, etc.

If learning is “merely” a diversion, I don’t see why people would think about it any differently. Whether or not it still makes sense for that proof to carry a six figure price tag is a separate conversation.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by amanaplanacanal on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:15PM (#34372484)
We have been framing it that way for a long time though. How many times have you heard someone talk about the average income of high school graduates vs college graduates as a reason to go to college? I agree with you though. Education should be about personal enrichment, not personal “enrichment”.
Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by Animats on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:20PM (#34372555)
We have been framing it that way for a long time though.

Yes. That changed on February 28, 1967.[1][2]

[1] https://www.chronicle.com/article/the-day-the-purpose-of-col...

[2] https://archive.is/G11YT

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by yamtaddle on Friday January 13, 2023 @03:55PM (#34373765)
Fussell (among others) blamed the GI Bill for a marked decline in the average quality of college education, and the diminution of what "college educated" meant (without further qualifiers).

The spike in demand drove a ton of "normal" schools (teachers' colleges) to become proper colleges and even universities, plus a bunch of new ones to pop up, but rather than increasing the supply of (previously) college-level education, it mostly created a kind of knock-off, lower-tier product—there just weren't enough excellent professors to meet demand, not enough good, experienced college administrators, not enough anything, including, arguably, students who were fit for college (as it had previously been) in the numbers that were now attending.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by bumby on Friday January 13, 2023 @04:35PM (#34374209)
It seems like this sentiment is just a veiled form of elitism. One of the primary detractors when the GI Bill was being rolled out was University of Chicago of Chicago was Maynard Hutchins, who feared it would turn a campus into a shanty town of "hobos." He later walked that statement back and admitted that the veterans coming to schools ended up being higher quality students than the traditional variety.
Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by bumby on Friday January 13, 2023 @04:10PM (#34373913)
>college is not a 'factory' (or any sort of industry) that 'manufactures' workers

Unfortunately, the vocation focus of college has been a driving force since the early days of the industrial revolution, dating to the 1850s. The Morrill Land-Grant Act explicitly states that colleges (at least in the case of land grant schools) are there to train people for work:

>without excluding other scientific and classical studies and including military tactic, to teach such branches of learning as are related to agriculture and the mechanic arts, in such manner as the legislatures of the States may respectively prescribe, in order to promote the liberal and practical education of the industrial classes in the several pursuits and professions in life.

I respect and value the other traditional purpose of college, but we can also acknowledge that these purposes can change as society does.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by hn_throwaway_99 on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:07PM (#34372374)
I think this is a great post, but it also makes me so sad because it highlights a lot of the general pessimism I've felt about the direction of tech over the past decade or so (after so much optimism in the 90s and 00s). I mean, I feel like your description of "Really effective targeted advertising" is spot on, but it also makes me think "Why don't they just dump as all in the nutrient baths Matrix-style and just hook our eyeballs up to a continuous loop of ads?"

In seriousness, I feel like the only hope here is that the general population gets more and more aware about the negative impacts on all this hyper-targeted advertising. Certainly we've been making strides there with things like GDPR and documentaries like the Social Dilemma, but with so much money on the line it will be hard to fight back.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by eternalban on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:17PM (#34372512)
> - Machines should think, people should work

> - Reduced need for education.

This subset is the radioactive bits of AI impact. We can always address the rest, but that requires thinking and an education.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by packetlost on Friday January 13, 2023 @02:32PM (#34372721)
> - Really effective targeted advertising. Most computers already have a camera watching you. That's now coming to TV sets. Amazon and Google are always listening. So far, all this info is only used to select ads. Soon, it should be possible to generate customized marketing content for each consumer, and use immediate feedback on how the customer reacts to adjust the sales pitch. Alexa is already part of the way there.

Not only this, but the realtime trade-to-trade performance of companies is also easily available. If I was building an AI, I would let it make realtime decisions on where to put money as the "actuator" of society and advertising/consumer spending metrics as the sampling mechanism.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by college_physics on Friday January 13, 2023 @03:35PM (#34373524)
we are already in an AI catastrophe. "AI" has become lately a new thing due to a combination of some catchy technical advances and an associated runaway speculative bubble. In reality this is just the latest act in a long-running process of data collection, quantification and data driven decision support that is gradually seeping through to permeate every facet of life. With the proliferation of digital computers (we are now swimming in a soup of etched silicon) these processes are exploding.

Whereas in the past there was some breathing room for society to catch up, evaluate and control this technology [0], today the rapidity has converted it into a wild west: tech entrepreneurs and their financiers declare their self-serving moral standards as the new norm, the broader public is dazed, confused and misinformed and public institutions, nominally at the service of the citizenry are only as good as their weakest, most capturable link

Name one development over the past decade that indicates we [1] are actually capable to control what is happening and the above dark picture is mere scaremongering.

[0] think e.g., about regulatory constraints around insurance or financial data and models

[1] as in citizens anywhere in the world

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by Joeri on Friday January 13, 2023 @04:04PM (#34373861)
I’m expecting even worse: heavily weaponized political influencing by AI bots. Brexit was won in 2016 by microtargeting ads on facebook based on individual profiles, and since then this has become a common strategy. Think of what a game changer it will be to have convincing AI bots engaging one on one with people online to give them exactly the arguments needed to make them vote the right way. The candidate with the best AI team is all but guaranteed to win.

This is not a matter of “if”, it is a matter of “when”.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by yamtaddle on Friday January 13, 2023 @04:07PM (#34373887)
We're gonna have to choose between a free, semi-anonymous, international communication network, and democracy. Probably very soon.

I've long suspected China had the right idea here, and am, in this case, not happy to be proven right.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by _nalply on Saturday January 14, 2023 @06:14AM (#34379314)
Care to explain more?

Especially what do you think China's idea is?

And also how that idea relates to, in your words but abbreviated, «choosing between a network and democracy».

Thank you.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by UncleOxidant on Friday January 13, 2023 @04:38PM (#34374241)
> Machines beating humans at business. In some areas, AI systems may generate better returns than humans.

This was part of what was going on in the recent novel "Mountain in the Sea". An AI-controlled fishing corporation figured out that replacing robots with enslaved humans on it's AI controlled fishing fleet was more cost effective (the ocean air was hell on the robots apparently, they kept breaking). Each fishing boat was controlled by an AI which had the objective of maximizing profits. As a result the oceans were being depleted of fish at a rapid rate.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by AussieWog93 on Friday January 13, 2023 @06:12PM (#34375211)
>- Machines should think, people should work. That's what working in an Amazon warehouse is like today. The machines tell the humans what to do. They have to; only the computers have an overview of the process. (Yeah, Marshall Brain's "Manna", which everyone here has probably read.)

I actually run some Manna-esque systems in my own small business (most notably a system for stock picking and shipping) and this isn't something to worry about in the near-term.

It greatly, greatly reduces the amount of frustration and stress people experience in mundane jobs, greatly reduces cognitive complexity and just generally makes the work more satisfying.

Maybe there's a risk of humans losing their jobs to machines, a la chapter 2 of Manna, but to be frank it's no different to the threat of outsourcing which has existed for 50+ years.

Re:We could stumble into AI catastrophe by alpineidyll3 on Sunday January 15, 2023 @02:34PM (#34392424)
Worrying is only worthwhile if there is something you can do about it. I don't think there is anything most people can do to avoid the wave of human replacement that near term AI is going to cause. The best most people could manage would be to develop better philosophies and perspectives to cope with their irrelevance.