> That is exactly equivalent to "dunno, maybe something".

Yup! It's like understanding the why of weather and people. They are messy and have so many factors you can't account for. It's like saying, why are the clouds shaped like that. You can why your way down, but it's turtles all the way!

When it comes to non-linear junk, the why becomes mixed up because the causes are so numerous. There are so many tiny interactions you can't really say there is one individual cause. Often times you have phenomena that occur at specific energy levels that aren't really caused by any one thing. Even something as simple as a double pendulum is unpredictable.

One thing that is kind of mind blowing is strange attractors. Systems that are so random you cannot predict them even a few moments later can exhibit seemingly ordered patterns. They seem to have a cause, but they are literally just statistical mechanics. A slightly more likely outcome out of un-countable numbers of other outcomes.

It is entirely possible that global warming could tip us into the next ice age, though probably not in our lifetimes.

First you would need a world-wide cloud layer reflecting insolation back without conversion to IR. As the temperature drops, ice forms. When the clouds dissipate, the ice takes over reflecting sunlight out.

Or it could return us back to the hothouse earth of the cretaceous era. Or it could turn our entire planet into a second Venus with a runaway effect from all the methane. Or it could do almost nothing at all. There is just no way to know because it's never really happened before. We are playing with fire for sure.