Re:The Spaceballs Argument for Unconditional Basic Income
by pchristensen on Wednesday January 11, 2023 @04:34PM
(#34345246)
This is a pretty shrewd comment. It won't matter if an AI is more capable than a human, if it costs more to run that task than it would to hire a human. There are still people working in mines in poor countries because they're cheaper than the machines used in rich countries.
Re:The Spaceballs Argument for Unconditional Basic Income
by readthenotes1 on Wednesday January 11, 2023 @04:20PM
(#34345035)
Those people with IQs below 70 are already uneconomical. I don't know where the line is for "we can find productive work for this idiot", but it's definitely higher than "cannot tie/Velcro shoes"
Re:The Spaceballs Argument for Unconditional Basic Income
by slowmovintarget on Wednesday January 11, 2023 @05:13PM
(#34345774)
If military standards are anything to go by, it's roughly IQ 83 by law. Standard requirements are closer to 91, those this is a rough equivalence.
The military found that people with lower scores were not even up to correctly sweeping the floors consistently.
The actual test is not an IQ test but the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery, which has rough equivalents to IQ scoring.
Imagine there was an AI which was normal compared to a human mind — as in, you can reasonably assign it an IQ score the same way you would a biological human, and the score wouldn't be biased by it doing the maths and memory puzzles a million times faster even as it fails a simple word game or is unable to either count or subitize a small number of objects in an image.
IQ scores are normally only valid in the "+/- 2 standard deviations" range, which by definition is IQ 70 to 130.
(IQ tests are just a direct mapping onto standard deviations, not at all a linear scale, so while I'm very impressed with ChatGPT, I don't know if it would always outperform an IQ 70 human or not, even though it can definitely sometimes outperform IQ 130 human).
Assume this AI's electricity bill is equal to Example Everyperson's wages.
If the AI has an IQ of 70, then 2.3% of the population are permanently uneconomical through no fault of their own; 85, then 15.9%; 100, then 50%; 115, then 84.9%, 130, then 97.7%.
What is the likely IQ of the first human-like AI whose electricity cost matches an average salary? And how fast is it likely to go up?
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From the other direction: I don't know for sure how much ChatGPT costs to run, though I think it's in the order of cents per response. What I do have is an upper bound for Stable Diffusion of $0.0001 per image, less than half of the $0.00022 it takes to keep a human (on the $1.90 per day UN abject poverty threshold) alive for 10 seconds to type in the prompt[0].
I don't know what the future of AI will be, but I suspect that it will be so cheap that that won't need to be a superior intelligence to all humans in all domains, to cause literally all humans in all domains to be uneconomical.
[0] https://kitsunesoftware.wordpress.com/2022/10/09/an-end-to-c...