Re:The quiz Daniel Kahneman wants you to fail
by vbtemp on Friday January 06, 2012 @09:58AM
(#3433501)
That's the point - you're willing (we all are, usually) to pay a premium for that certainty. In the book he uses all sorts of figures or probabilities (I remember one case, when it was like 99% chance to win one million dollars, or 100% chance to win ${800,000, $600,000, $400,000} -- starts getting a little tricky there, right?)
Now if the sums were $8.50 and $10.00 instead, I'd likely make the more rational choice (90% of $10), because such choices with smaller amounts of money come up far more often in my life: the sample size will be large enough that the mean approaches the expected value.