News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession? by zeusk on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @05:36PM (#34332523)
I'm sorry, none of them have a track record of paying 15%+ yield. The yield looks high right now because they're in distress and the asset prices have gone down, with earnings heading lower and higher borrow cost I doubt those yields will even make a dent to capital losses in owning those assets.

PDO and AFCG were not even listed 5 years ago. PBR is very much a distressed asset in a state pursuing nationalization of oil profits.

Re:Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession? by adam_arthur on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @09:33PM (#34334364)
You’re simply wrong, these positions are not distressed at all.

PDO is a bond fund, not a company. They earn interest on bonds they hold. All bonds have lost value as risk free rate has risen. The interest payments on those bonds has remained the same, and they don’t hold non-performing loans. There is no distress in the portfolio.

If rates drop again in the future, the capital losses revert back to capital gains. If you think the Fed will hike substantially more from here, then these arent the place to be. I for one think they dont have much further to go

These are managed by PIMCO which is a famous fixed income firm, not some nobody. You can look at PTY for a longer public fund. Which performed very well through the GFC by the way

AFCG has 0 debt and real estate secured loans. Not distressed, even if they experience many defaults in a severe recession. Lenders go bust when they are overindebted and cant service debt due to defaults.

PBR has a PE of less than 2 and is not distressed at all. Its price is down due to political fears that the new government will mismanage the company. Fears which are likely to be overblown.

ARCC and CSWC are two other high yield lenders that are doing better than ever. CSWC sports close to a 15% yield including specials

Re:Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession? by roflyear on Tuesday January 10, 2023 @11:27PM (#34335007)
Are you taking into account stock price, as well?

For example, if you buy a stock at $5, and it pays out $3 of dividends, ok that may be great, but if the value of the stock is now $2...

Re:Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession? by zeusk on Wednesday January 11, 2023 @12:39AM (#34335388)
> PBR has a PE of less than 2 and is not distressed at all. Its price is down due to political fears that the new government will mismanage the company. Fears which are likely to be overblown.

You really don’t know what you’re talking about and are underplaying material risks like the govt. withholding most or all profits of the nationalized oil firm.

And like I said, the other stocks you had mentioned didn’t exist 3 years ago - that’s not a track record to judge by - issuing leveraged loans in free money environment which is no more.