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A comment on Shorting Tether for Fun and Profit. Parent comment

Re:Shorting Tether for Fun and Profit by dghlsakjg on Sunday January 08, 2023 @02:06PM (#34302011)
I don't have a deeply researched position behind this, but my feeling has always been that (long term, I say again, LONG TERM) VTSAX and chill is the same bet as holding cash.

If your VTSAX ends up being worth nothing long-term, there is almost certainly no chance that your currency survived the same event.

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Re:Shorting Tether for Fun and Profit by jmathai on Sunday January 08, 2023 @03:28PM (#34302750)
Curious about this. The geometric mean of return for the S&P500 is about 7% over several decades. The longer the time horizon the more likely you’ll hit 7%.

Why do you think it’s similar to holding cash?

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Re:Shorting Tether for Fun and Profit by dghlsakjg on Sunday January 08, 2023 @05:23PM (#34303914)
Not that its the same return as holding cash (clearly that isn't true), just that if VTSAX doesn't pay off as a bet long term, it will be because the dollar has ceased to be valuable.

Basically, a bet on VTSAX is underpinned by faith in the dollar. If either one crashes the other is worthless.

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