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A comment on U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022. Parent comment

Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by scarface74 on Friday January 06, 2023 @04:28PM (#34281412)
https://blog.tornado.com/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy...
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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by Godel_unicode on Friday January 06, 2023 @05:48PM (#34282459)
That’s not responsive to what I said. It’s a snappy one liner though, so I guess cool?
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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by scarface74 on Friday January 06, 2023 @05:53PM (#34282525)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170913-unemployment-rate-a...

> An inverse relationship between level of unemployment and forward stock market returns. In the current quintile (2.5% to 4.4% unemployment), the average S&P 500 return over the following year is 5.6% versus and average of 12.7% in all periods. The best returns historically have come after periods of high unemployment

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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by Jorge1o1 on Friday January 06, 2023 @06:16PM (#34282755)
That’s forward stock market returns. AKA,__after__ everyone has been fired.

You need to look at what happens to stock prices during the recession/firing.

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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by Godel_unicode on Friday January 06, 2023 @06:07PM (#34282664)
Again, cool, also unresponsive to the what I wrote.
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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by scarface74 on Friday January 06, 2023 @06:13PM (#34282731)
You wrote

> So far, in this one specific downturn, sure. There is however a strong historical correlation between market downturns and widespread unemployment.

Statistics show just the opposite

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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by Godel_unicode on Friday January 06, 2023 @10:35PM (#34284874)
Of course they don’t, that’s not what your articles say. Did you read them? They, respectively, say that the market is forward-looking and that major gains are made after downturns.

It can simultaneously be true that major gains are made after downturns and that there has historically been a strong correlation between downturns and unemployment.

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