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A comment on U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022. Parent comment

Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by FooBarBizBazz on Friday January 06, 2023 @12:49PM (#34278202)
It's weird how most of the return from bonds comes not from yield but from capital appreciation [1], which happens because yields are dropping. There's something perverse and circular about it: "Make sure you buy your collectible widget today! It'll go up in value, because next year's widgets won't be as good! Prices only go up, because everything's downhill from here!"

[1] Actually, is this literally true?

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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by rr888 on Friday January 06, 2023 @01:44PM (#34279017)
yes it has been true the last 50 years, as market rates go down the existing bonds become more valuable. But it can't continue forever. https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-...
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Re:U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022 by FooBarBizBazz on Friday January 06, 2023 @05:38PM (#34282334)
About [1]: I'm wrong. If you look at TLT in TradingView, adjusted for "dividends" vs. not, from 2003 to 2019 you see nominal gains of about 150% (with) vs. 40% (without). So most gain is from income. That's ignoring tax.

Would also be good to compare to CPI to understand real returns. Or whatever other number seems to be a truer measure of inflation (house prices, for example).

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