> This happens approximately never (see: Qanon), and when it does, the chances of a good result are even more remote (see: Bolshevism).

I would also count Russia in the current war into the "never bucket". Many expected them to overthrow the dictatorship, but the internal situation only became worse since 2022. If anything as more people leave, system becomes more homogenous and even more supportive of current status quo.