There is typically a ten year warranty on the installation that covers leaks. An installer checks for roof age as part of qualification so you don't put panels on a roof that will age out before the panel warranty (typically 20 years, sometimes 25.)

Roof leaks that are accidental are covered by insurance, and the work to remove or replace the panels is part of that. Typically you adjust your home insurance coverage by the value of the panels when you install them to make sure everything's covered.

That just leaves the chance that the installer work will be good enough to make it ten years but not twenty, and the insurance won't cover the damage. I don't know the odds of that. It seems like it would be infrequent, but what numbers do you use?

I don’t use any numbers. Just wanted to point out there is slightly more to it than the upfront cost. As with anything there is an associated maintenance cost that is variable depending on circumstance.

To be clear I think solar panels can be a great idea, but it’s misleading to present only a single upfront cost when determining the years to break even

I understand. It's not bad to keep in mind (I made a spreadsheet with anticipated expenses before I got my panels), but I think it can be more misleading to dwell on small risks than not to if it keeps someone from buying an asset with a good lifetime ROI for most people.

Cleaning panels also needs to happen periodically. That cost can be in the thousands, especially if your roof is hard to access (e.g. high off the ground).

There are so many ways a rooftop solar installation investment can turn against you. If regulations change, your net metering goes away. If electricity prices drop, your ROI goes negative.

Rooftop solar is a fun enthusiast project, but it's a lousy use of solar panels. Community solar or utility solar projects are far better for homeowners. And for the environment.

The only reason people do it is that there are artificial incentives; it's not actually efficient in reality.

I have rooftop solar - and eventually I will need a new roof - which will require taking the solar panels off and then mounting them back on again - labor costs. Additionally the inverter will fail at a certain point and that is not cheap. Given some ballpark estimates, I do feel like it could simply be a wash financially.

How old’s your roof? Just wait until it’s time for new panels. You’ll want new panels after a couple decades and change for the significantly improved performance. Panel work will be routine for roofers in the 2030s and 2040s. If you installed them on an old roof, you made a mistake, and your municipality probably shouldn’t have approved the work in the first place.

Your replacement inverter should only cost $1-3k in present money, depending on its size. You probably have a warranty on it for the first half of your panels’ life.

You also don’t need to pay for an expensive extensive cleaning unless something goes really wrong or you live under an HOA that is hostile to solar.

By far, the biggest factor in ROI is your generation relative to your initial installation cost minus tax credits and SRECs.

12 year roof. Older than I would have liked.

Could be on the edge. Hopefully you have architectural shingles.

It's usually recommended to install solar panels on a relatively new roof (< 5 years), so that both the roof and solar panel lifecycles align. Since the panels act as protection of sorts, it also extends the life of the roof, and you can easily have both installations serve you for ~30 years.