Re:Artificial Intelligence Is Stupid and Causal Reasoning Wi...
by Retric on Saturday December 31, 2022 @06:07AM
(#34195359)
Computers clearly existed before the 1970’s even though nobody was buying personal computers back then. We are at the earliest version of self driving where it’s not affordable for individuals and the use cases are very limited, but that’s not nothing.
The self driving car you want to buy doesn’t exist, but they are already providing a valuable service. Saying well VC’s want to replace all Taxi drivers and all Long haul truckers and all … just means that development will continue but that’s true of most products. We hardly say the CPU doesn’t exist because Intel and AMD are still spending billions on R&D. All existing self driving car investments are really just peanuts compared to what companies will spend as the market matures and profits roll in.
The problem is the insane amount of training needed. The current approach of running repeated learning iterations to iron out corner cases soon runs up against the long tail of thousands and thousands of tiny, unlikely-but-possible scenarios requiring more and more data. Every time you expand the scope of the self-driving car (different roadside conditions, behaviors of pedestrians and other drivers, new roads, weather, etc.), you discover more conditions for the model to train on.
You can't just say, "my model is intelligent. Now it's just an exercise for the reader to train the model on all possible scenarios, and voila! You have a self-driving system!". You have to actually train the model to produce a self-driving car.
This is a never-ending battle. Let me point out how utterly different it is from how human drivers deal with new conditions.
No, self-driving cars don't exist. Not yet. And it's not for legal reasons.
(One technical solution to the self-driving problem would be to also modify all the roads and surroundings to reduce the number of unlikely scenarios that our models have to learn. But this kind of solution is challenging for non-software reasons, plus it would not really be "intelligent" in terms of AGI. It would be more like a tramway. It wouldn't be sexy.)