I am really curious.
The big advantage of freemium is lower friction. The people who buy your product don't typically need it advertised or explained to them. They've either already got experience with it due to being free users or they will set aside some time to trial you product for free for a while. Beyond that a free product can build up a strong reputation that carries over to the paid versions.
Billions upon billions of dollars are spent every year by companies trying to create familiarity and trust in their brands. Being able to do that with a free version of your actual product is just as worthy of the expense and in many ways a far more honest form of advertising.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hpi5nUhssY
http://techcrunch.com/2009/07/12/guest-post-is-free-the-futu...
If Dropbox has ten million users paying them $10 / month, but they have to support another billion free users for twenty cents per month each, they're screwed.
1. Assuming you're making enough to cover fixed expenses
Business on the internet seems to be much more about driving up total users while driving down expense per user, rather than driving up paying users / total users.
I get that this is a startup article, and my thought reading this article was "well, that's conversion math for you." But you're making a broader point.
Surely the total revenue from paying customers, relative to the cost of providing service to all users, is what matters^? If so, then this is ultimately a function of the percentage of paying users to free users (assuming cost of servicing paying and free customers are largely similar).
The opening statement of the post, that people who want something for free won't think to pay for it, is something of a non-statement. That free users cost (as the post goes on to argue) is pretty much a given, but it still matters.
^Where (I assume) what matters is a profitable business.
Freemium models tend to scale price with bandwidth/storage usage, which would be the largest variable costs. Is serving a million users with barely any data really that hard once you have the infrastructure to serve a few thousand with lots of data?
The percentage of users that convert should be a closely watched metric that is very important to any freemium business.
Write it off as a marketing expense and hope it attracts more paid users?
Expecting to get paid on a depreciating model is lunatic. Without any metric over such - this model works, but expecting to get paid on a depreciated value, never does.
Figures from several freemium businesses that I am familiar with suggest that this model works on the 'lifestyle' end as well as on the 'more money than you could reasonably spend in a lifetime' ends of running a business, and I presume on many points in between. The trick is not to lose too much money on your free users and to make them pay in some other way, for instance by selling advertising or by engaging them to promote the product to others.
http://www.kalzumeus.com/2011/12/21/bingo-card-creator-etc-y...
"I have come to the realization that most people who want something for free will never, ever think of paying you, no matter how valuable they find your service."
This is true, but irrelevant. What matters is the total number of people paying you, not what percentage of your users that fraction represents.
https://www.google.com/search?q=dropbox+revenues