My fairly anodyne conspiracy theory is that the government actually just missed the ball completely — didn’t want to admit it was going to be a big deal, etc, so they gave the “masks not necessary” advice. Then as the narrative was developing it became less embarrassing to appear manipulative than wrong and so here we are.

If they really wanted to save PPE for the hospitals, they could have made some calls to Walmart, Home Depot, and friends to pull it from the shelves. If it were an attempt at manipulation it would have been executed more smoothly.