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Re:Ask HN: What are you predictions for 2023? by phtrivier on Sunday December 25, 2022 @05:32AM (#34125963)
My general prediction is : next year will be a mixture of things continuing to happen as before, and completely unexpexted events that will actually play out similarly than previous events, but from a while ago.

There will be strikes in France, coups in south America and / or Africa, very few plane crashes, an awful lot of car accidents, and maybe a rocket malfunction.

War in Russia will go on. (Apparently, half of all wars last more than a year :/ [1]) A next wave from Belarus is almost a sure thing. Not sure why it would work better than last one, but everyone will get weary. I don't know where it would make sense military wise for Russia to drop a tactical nuke. They will do if they find out. The first power cut in a major European country will change the game as far as public support goes. But gouvernements don't need public support to send weapons.

Also, famous people will die in January / February. (because babyboom + life expectancy + winter)

Summer will be on average hotter than summers from the last decade. Except during my holidays, where it will rain cats and dogs.

Finally, the year will end in December.

[1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars...

Re:Ask HN: What are you predictions for 2023? by FeistySkink on Sunday December 25, 2022 @07:01AM (#34126489)
Do you have a source for the last two? Seems too far fetched.
Re:Ask HN: What are you predictions for 2023? by phtrivier on Sunday December 25, 2022 @09:31AM (#34127519)
I'm trying to get a double blind controlled study of the weather duringy holidays published, but the editor of Science has not returned my calls yet.
Re:Ask HN: What are you predictions for 2023? by denton-scratch on Sunday December 25, 2022 @08:18AM (#34126991)
> War in Russia will go on.

There is no war in Russia. Russia is at war, but that war is happening in a country called Ukraine.

Re:Ask HN: What are you predictions for 2023? by phtrivier on Sunday December 25, 2022 @09:26AM (#34127475)
I was expecting some joke around "there is no war in Russia, it's a special operation, yada yada". Then I reread myself and spotted the obvious mistake.

:facepalm:

(Although, technically, some parts of Ukraine are claimed by Russia, so... No ? Ok, no. Sorry.)

Re:Ask HN: What are you predictions for 2023? by smileysteve on Sunday December 25, 2022 @09:31AM (#34127517)
Ukraine has brought the war back to Russia in a handful of attacks.

Another argument is that conscription leads to unrest, and also sowing doubt amongst the leadership is a kind of war.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/strikes-deep-i...