Re:Money, Money, Money (and Investing) (2015)
by rofo1 on Sunday December 25, 2022 @01:06AM
(#34124821)
This is not applicable. What is your exact positions, and time frame (exactly)? Then we will see if you hit or miss.
That may be the only thing I "like" about WSB: "positions or ban". Otherwise everybody would pretend that they are a genius investor doing 50% yearly easily, etc.
Anyway, it's not impossible to beat the market, but I don't know a lot of people that beat it consistently over long periods of time. Really, a few names come to mind. That's all out of millions and millions of investors. That's hard data.
Re:Money, Money, Money (and Investing) (2015)
by monero-xmr on Sunday December 25, 2022 @01:38AM
(#34124983)
I own ~$2.5 million in rental property with a yearly income of $170k which nets $35k after mortgages and other fees. I have another $3 million or so in personal houses we travel around in. I have millions in cryptocurrency, primarily BTC ETH XMR and several Punks. I own something like $40 million in mostly tech private equity but it’s hard to judge what a post-meltdown valuation will be, I expect some down rounds coming as IPO is gone. My wife has something like a million in assets she inherited but I don’t ask about it. My brother is also a self made guy worth about 20 million, wholly different industry. Not sure what else I can say.
My oil and gas ETF position I mentioned in another comment was about 500k I YOLOd in an IRA.
For last 15 years it was about making gains at all, but now that inflation is 10% it’s how you prevent losing your money.
So much of the future depends on a tiny, unelected body that controls the global economy (the Federal Reserve) that you need to think about interest rates a lot. I come from the Austrian perspective but I understand mainstream economic reasoning so I can put myself into that mental framework when thinking about the future. However fundamentally I am a classical economic liberal, free market, Austrian.
I think inflation is here to stay for a while. I don’t think Biden and society in general can stomach a massive recession. Putting cash into short term treasuries can get you a guaranteed 5% which could be safe play given how crazy the markets are.
I am cold on AI. Everyone and their mother has been predicting self driving cars, massive job losses to automation, and so on for years. Never happens and not going to. I would avoid this industry as an investor. As labor it can be advantageous as talent is over-compensated.
I’m skeptical of electric cars. Renewables make sense in places but also a skeptic on the time frame. Would avoid electric car and ESG equities.
Residential real estate in places without strong rent control vibes is a good bet. If you can do it yourself even better - the government subsidizes your mortgage and small time landlords avoid a lot of the political intrigue. If you can get an investment property or a small multi family, I would consider swapping equities for that and let rent follow inflation each year.
Short Europe and China. Long Africa and India.
A bunch of opinions here but hopefully this fills in some pieces.