I don't believe that comparing those two is unreasonable.
However, to your last question that is what micomorts can answer.
The risk of death from a vaccination is 2.9 micromorts. The risk of death from contracting Covid-19 for a 25 year old is 100 micromorts. So 30x greater risk.. and those are directly comparable numbers.
The other point to consider - you're not always going to be 25. I'm much closer to the 55 bracket than the 25 bracket, and that represents a 40x increase in risk... so about 1200x greater risk than vaccination.
Assuming you remain a hermit for some number of years (and Covid-19 remains endemic), is there a point where you would change your mind on the value proposition of a vaccination? And if the answer is yes - why not do it now?
Yea, currently you're comparing 2.9 micromorts vs 100 micromorts. At 25, that comparison doesn't have too much to it. 100 micromorts is not something that I think too much about either (comparable to the risk of death while giving birth for the women out there). I've done road trips that racked up 100 micromorts cumulative (more if you add in the hiking and skiing micromorts on that trip).
I'll also note I'm older now than when I was when I did that roadtrip... and there are things that I would do now to further mitigate the risks that I took back then.
It's not wrong for your age, but it is something that should be said "yes, its a risk and it is a lot riskier."
That said, there's a number even beyond that 100 micromorts to consider.
New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work - https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid...
> 1.6 million full-time equivalent workers could be out of work due to long Covid. With 10.6 million unfilled jobs at the time, long Covid potentially accounted for 15% of the labor shortage.
That 4M number is not part that I want to be part of. While I have better than average health insurance, the not-dying also has a significant risk to it too. It is harder to quantify as it isn't an accurate cause of mortality - but it is not something that should be ignored.
Many people here enjoy better than average salaries - consider the risk of going on long term disability for the next 40 to 60 years with the corresponding reduction in compensation. And yes, I know people who are no longer able to work on anything that has a deadline or expectations of attendance in meetings; their lifestyle has changed significantly from three years ago.
So in other words it's pretty inflated.
1) Putting covid-positive patients in nursing homes instead of isolating them
2) Excess use of ventilators set to maximum
3) Omicron
4) I feel like I'm forgetting something...
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm was a initial report on the excess deaths in NYC in the spring of 2020.
The by age micromorts are based on a paper that was published in December of 2020. Delta was first detected in the US in Feb of 2021 and named in May of 2021 - again, those numbers are before Delta and Omicron (and vaccination).
The numbers may not be current, but they are not inflated. They are an accurate representation of the excess deaths at that time.
> The numbers may not be current, but they are not inflated. They are an accurate representation of the excess deaths at that time.
That is exactly my point for mentioning Omicron: When you introduced them above you were using them for current risk.
This is highly misleading. The average individual may be at such risk, just like humans have ~1.9 legs on average, but that doesn't mean that everyone walks around with their 1.9 legs.
So those statistics are based on the risk to the general population and therefore have approximately zero relevance to any single person.
Almost by definition, the disease will claim those most vulnerable first, so questioning whether vaccination is worth it for those less vulnerable is valid.
What're the risks of vaccination vs covid for a healthy 25 year old who works from home?