So manufacturing fusion reactors would use a lot of lithium, which is already in short supply. That would be an interesting complication with the demand of lithium for electric vehicle batteries. Maybe the Li supply situation will be eased by then.
https://cfs.energy/news-and-media/new-scientific-papers-pred...
You’re probably right, but I guess what I’m saying is that we’ve never had a fusion power plant that produces net energy gain at any cost. I believe SPARC is on the path to doing so. It will still take a long time to make fusion actually affordable. For what it’s worth I am a huge advocate of wind and solar power. But fusion is neat and I’m excited for us to get to a point where we actually have sustained Q total greater than 1.
I agree with you that in a practical sense fusion power will not be economical in the next 50 years, but then solar power was not economical for most of my life either. I am excited for the technology to get to the point where at the very least it is producing power, as this will stimulate more investment in lowering the costs, and has been such a dream for longer than I have been alive.
As for safety, the problem with fission isn't safety, it's cost. Trading off economics to obtain better safety is solving the wrong problem.
If fusion is not to be economical for 50 years, it will be competing against renewables (and storage) that have gone fully down their experience curves. In a world fully powered by PV, on the demonstrated historical experience curve, the LCOE from PV could be below $0.01/kWh (in today's dollars). Fusion will have a very difficult time competing against that.
The capability of the NIF to get positive energy from the energy that they impart on the Hohlraum itself is neat, but I constantly discount any milestones that Livermore/NIF report, because the inertial confinement approach has such higher barriers to commercialization than tokamak style approaches, that I just consign it to "boondoggle" in my head.
Yeah, the lasers could be 20x more efficient, and yeah, they probably could figure out how to pump 10s of targets into the chamber per second, but the energy extraction is just completely missing from the considerations. The engineering challenges are a whole 'nother level for NIF, a big barrier to usability.