Re:Harsh Realities From 500 Startups Founders
by YuriNiyazov on Monday December 26, 2011 @02:31PM
(#3393700)
I am not talking about "getting huge" at all, because I don't believe there is enough space in the market for 300+ (number of YC investments so far) huge (Google/Apple/Facebook/Microsoft) companies. I am, however, talking about non-trivial exits, ones that definitely put a founder in the "success" bin. Let's say, 10+ million in 4 years. I don't think it's possible to get to that point "on the side".
Re:Harsh Realities From 500 Startups Founders
by ljlolel on Monday December 26, 2011 @07:32PM
(#3394327)
Don't use generalizations, just do the math.
$10 million, minus the VC investment, split each among 2 or 3 founders. That ends up being what, $2-3 million in 4 years? I personally know several people who make more than that off of one iPhone app on the side. Apple's paid out billions to app developers.
Again, look at the numbers: what percent of YC investments have exited at $10 million+ in 4 years? Again, much closer to 10% than 100%. This is in a thread where pg implies that the chances of a big success are 2/3 or higher for some people. Empirical evidence proves that top investors are not right anywhere near the probability suggested.
By your logic, this implies that in the best possible circumstances (YC), you're not going to get above a few percent chance a priori of a huge success if you work like crazy.
Whereas an equally intelligent person working reasonable hours on the side when appropriate has a decent chance of making a profitable lifestyle business in the millions without the possibility burnout and debt.