That's close to answering a question from a bit over a year ago: "in 5 years will there be an AI that's better than 90% of unassisted working programmers at solving new leetcode-type coding interview questions posed in natural language?" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29020401

It didn't get a very welcoming reception -- "highly unlikely", and the tenor of other opinions in those comments then tended the same way. But I was being too conservative. (I thought so at the time but it felt sort of outside an Overton window of reasonable technology opinions.)