You're using a 16-17% figure for packaging overhead? That's low. Even with relatively expensive construction techniques (for example if you're doing EVTOL) you see 20-25% packaging overhead.

I agree, but a long haul, full payload electric Semi is a very challenging project comparable to an electric aircraft since you’re limited to near the same maximum total weight. I’m merely pointing out that such a battery pack is one possible solution, one that cannot be ruled out based on public information.

The in-use 2170 batteries are apparently 250Wh/kg. With that figure and a more realistic packaging overhead of 30% I'm seeing something like 190Wh/kg, which is more in line with your observation.

From the numbers I can find, the Model S 85kWh has 7104 18650 cells - if we use 49g for mass of cell, that's 767lb of cell vs the pack weight of 1200lb~, or a very rough packaging overhead of ~36%

This is a naïve analysis but it helps assuage my ego, as I've worked on designs for 26650 based packs where we would have been quite happy to hit 30% overhead :) That being said, I realize people can, and do in fact make more mass efficient packs.