Re:Statistical vs. Deep Learning forecasting methods
by brrrrrm on Thursday December 01, 2022 @01:50PM
(#33820758)
that's a good point. I guess as an addendum it's not just compute efficiency but also "statistical efficiency" (if that has any meaning?)
Re:Statistical vs. Deep Learning forecasting methods
by singhrac on Thursday December 01, 2022 @02:42PM
(#33821598)
I think that term already has usage as a proxy for "lowest sampling variance"; for example the Gauss Markov theorem shows that OLS is the most efficient unbiased linear estimator.
I guess this is echoing your point 2, but I would have generally said that "principled" statistical models are less efficient these days than DL (see: HMC being much slower than variational Bayes). Priors are usually overrated but I think the risk is more that basic mistakes are made because people don't understand what assumptions go into "basic" machine learning ideas like train/test splits or model selection. I'm not sure it warrants a lot of panic though.
I am not sure if you are not trading "high human efficiency" against increased risk of blowing up at some point. Good luck doing forecasting without thorough understanding of priors and statistics in general.