So [established financial player in old school finance job put on high risk desk] sees crypto as a chance to 10-100x BUT they just have to time it right. So all they have to do is basically play the lottery that their hundred plus million investment will have IPOd or got acquired by a bigger fish... all before a) anyone figures out the company is a fully worthless or b) the whole value was based on other companies falsely pumping up crypto. So they simply bet no one would notice in the next 5-10yrs before the stock gets converted or maybe a loan gets paid back.
And their risk/management team signed off on it?
And how do they estimate how long no one will notice or care? Or do you think they have other bullshit companies lined up to acquire it or the IPO market wouldnt check either?
Why wouldn't they just buy FTX coins or similar tokens for such a blatant pump scheme? Why make a long term bet on the actually company cashing out before anyone checks their books?
I don't mean to paint with too broad a brush here. The majority of investment managers are ethical and responsible. But there are always some bad actors, which we now see all around FTX.
Maybe I'm confused but even "dumb money" doesn't typically buy billion dollar scams at IPO where their financials are arranged by Goldman Sachs et al. Unless I missed some obvious examples in recent history where a bullshit (let alone crypto tier bullshit) tech company IPOd with hundreds of millions invested by legit Sequia/OTPP style investors and then the whole charade got exposed after the fact.
You could maybe point to a tiny set of VC companies in history, like Groupon where the stock price was overvalued at IPO, but even they are still a real business with 4000 employees 11 years later.
If anything you could say the grand conspiracy was betting on an acquirer buying them before crypto went bust. But I highly doubt that was a key part of some calculated plan.
Why is it so hard to believe they thought there was real longterm value in the business? It seemed on paper like they were making revenue for legit sources and successfully hid their relationships/high risk bets elsewhere?
It's just ridiculous that the whole fraud seems like it could have been revealed by just sending a (not even specialized in crypto !) accountant to either FTX or Alameda, and the """sophisticated""" investors (and worse : US banking """regulators""") failed to to so !
P.S.: And this is also where the defense of SBF comes in : he's pretty young, focused on "moving fast and breaking things", so of course he would have been emboldened by the above, and might not have realized just how criminal his doings were ??
Stealing and wasting billions is definitely worse than many violent crimes.
The investors might not have committed any crimes, but they bear some moral culpability for this debacle.
And to be clear I am not defending SBF at all. But on the scale of crimes, what he did is less bad than literally any violent crime.