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A comment on Fred Wilson: The Buy and Hold Mindset. Parent comment

Re:Fred Wilson: The Buy and Hold Mindset by Nursie on Tuesday November 29, 2022 @03:08AM (#33784878)
> you're equally likely to be investing at a local minimum.

If you invest at a few different times, whether fixed interval or random, is this not increasing the probability of approach an average value over the period you're investing?

I'm not asserting it's a good idea, I'm not using it as a strategy myself (or in fact making investment choices myself at all really), I'm just interested from the technical perspective.

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Re:Fred Wilson: The Buy and Hold Mindset by DelaneyM on Tuesday November 29, 2022 @12:37PM (#33790613)
> If you invest at a few different times, whether fixed interval or random, is this not increasing the probability of approach an average value over the period you're investing?

It does indeed increase the probability that you will approach the average value over that period.

But there's no reason to believe that average will be lower than the current value.

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Re:Fred Wilson: The Buy and Hold Mindset by Nursie on Tuesday November 29, 2022 @10:55PM (#33796853)
> But there's no reason to believe that average will be lower than the current value.

100%, not disagreeing. But it does reduce the risk that you're buying at an outlier price.

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